Commitment is an Act: Do Firms Speculate to Meet Management Forecasts?
1 : Monash university
This paper examines whether firms use selective hedging strategies to meet management earnings forecasts. Selective hedging is speculation and allows managers to incorporate market predictions into derivative programs. We find that firms with management earnings forecasts are more likely to engage in selective hedging. This speculative activity is especially prevalent when management forecasts overestimate earnings and is most noticeable with foreign exchange derivatives. As can be expected, speculating firms often report earnings below the forecast, which results in a negative abnormal return of 3.4%. We find no effects for non-speculative derivative usage.