This paper examines the effects of the high-quality development policy on carbon emissions in China. Using panel data from 30 provinces spanning 2009-2021, we utilize the national spatial strategy on the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as a quasi-natural experiment. Through the analysis of difference-in-differences (DID) and synthetic control method (SCM) models, we find that the strategy increased carbon emissions, indicating that the income effect still prevailed during this period. This is evidenced by the fact that investment in pollution control did not grow proportionally with economic growth. The income effect is more pronounced in the less developed provinces. Additionally, we find that innovation increased carbon emissions before the strategy but helped decrease emissions afterward, attributable to the strategy. Finally, we discuss the implications and limitations of our findings.