Common Factor of Carbon and Oil Markets
I-Hsuan Ethan Chiang  1@  , Shih Kuei Lin  2@  , Zong-Wei Yeh  2@  
1 : University of North Carolina at Charlotte
2 : National Chengchi University

Carbon and oil markets play an important role in the development of the global economy. However, little is known about how these markets evolve and respond to policy changes and market forces. In this study, we introduce ATSM to explore the interdependence between carbon policy and oil market dynamics at different time scales. Based on our model specification, we obtain idiosyncratic carbon factors and show that these factors can capture carbon policy risk more effectively than the original carbon price. Our empirical results show that short-term carbon effects are transmitted through the production demand channel, while long-term carbon shocks introduce oil supply-side information that significantly influences the evolution of oil prices. We also show that oil supply shocks are a key determinant of carbon policy changes and lead to adjustments in energy production strategies.


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